Analysis of The Gambia’s 2025 Budget Reveals Gaps

Finance Minister Keita tables 2025 Budget in Parliament © Askanwi Media

By Lamin Dampha

The 2025 budget of The Gambia demonstrates efforts to align with national development goals, including improving health, education, and agriculture. However, the allocations reveal gaps when compared to international benchmarks and the critical needs of these sectors. Below is my opinion:

1. Education and Health Allocations

• Education: The Ministry of Basic and Secondary Education received an allocation of D5.09 billion, equivalent to approximately 13.4% of the total budget. This allocation, while significant, falls short of the international benchmark of 20% of total government expenditure recommended by UNESCO. Even if the allocation of the Ministry of Higher Education is added, the percentage total of the total budget will be less than 15%.

o Implications: The budget limits the ability to address challenges like inadequate school infrastructure, teacher retention, and the growing need for technical and vocational training.

o Recommendation: A higher allocation is necessary to expand access, improve learning outcomes, and align with international standards.

• Health: The Ministry of Health was allocated D2.66 billion, about 7% of the total budget, which is below the WHO-recommended 15% of government expenditure for health.

o Implications: This underfunding affects critical areas such as healthcare infrastructure, access to essential medicines, and the capacity to address public health emergencies.

o Recommendation: Substantial increases are required to improve service delivery, enhance preventive healthcare, and invest in medical equipment.

2. Agriculture

The agriculture sector, a key pillar of The Gambia’s economy and essential for food security, was allocated D945.7 million, which is 2.5% of the total budget. This is below the 10% recommended by the African Union's Malabo Declaration.

• Implications:

o The allocation limits investment in irrigation systems, agricultural inputs, and extension services that are vital for improving crop yields and rural livelihoods.

o Persistent underfunding undermines efforts to modernize agriculture, achieve food self-sufficiency, and reduce reliance on imports.

• Recommendation: Increase funding for crop production, value chain development, and climate-resilient agricultural practices to meet national and regional commitments.

3. Debt Servicing

The largest single budgetary allocation, D11.02 billion (29.1%), is devoted to debt servicing.

• Implications: High debt servicing limits the fiscal space available for critical sectors like education, health, and agriculture.

• Recommendation: The government should focus on reducing debt through renegotiation, prioritizing concessional loans, and enhancing domestic resource mobilization.

4. Infrastructure Development

The Ministry of Transport, Works, and Infrastructure received D2.17 billion (5.7%), reflecting the government’s commitment to addressing infrastructure deficits.

• Implications: Investment in infrastructure can stimulate economic growth, improve connectivity, and enhance trade. However, care must be taken to ensure transparency and efficiency in project implementation.

5. Revenue Mobilization and Expenditure Control

The government projects revenues and grants of D44.7 billion (22.3% of GDP), indicating strong growth from the previous year. Reforms such as improved tax compliance and the introduction of levies on specific goods (e.g., sugar, alcohol) are expected to boost revenue.

Expenditure control measures include shifting to performance-based budgeting and rationalizing subvented agencies. However, the reliance on borrowing for deficit financing raises concerns about sustainability.

6. Cross-Sectoral Insights

• Social Protection: Allocations for gender, children, and social welfare (D97.8 million) remain low, raising concerns about addressing inequality and protecting vulnerable populations.

• Energy and Environment: The allocations to the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy (D1.26 billion) and the Ministry of Environment (D282.9 million) highlight modest steps toward green energy and climate resilience, but more robust investments are needed.

Evaluation of the 2025 Budget

The 2025 budget reflects a mixed approach:

• Strengths: Efforts to increase revenue, control expenditures, and address infrastructure deficits are commendable. The adoption of program-based budgeting aligns spending with national priorities.

• Weaknesses: Underfunding of critical sectors like education, health, and agriculture undermines the potential for sustainable development. High debt servicing constrains fiscal flexibility.

Conclusion and Recommendations

While the 2025 budget demonstrates intent to address key developmental challenges, it does not fully align with international benchmarks or the critical needs of priority sectors.

• Key Actions:

o Increase allocations to education (targeting 20%) and health (targeting 15%) to meet international standards.

o Raise funding for agriculture to at least 10% of the budget as per the Malabo Declaration.

o Explore debt restructuring and enhance domestic revenue mobilization to reduce the fiscal burden of debt servicing.

By addressing these gaps, The Gambia can better align its budget with its national development goals and international commitments, ensuring more equitable and sustainable growth.