Can the New RF-NDP Deliver on Its Promises?
President Adama Barrow and Minister Sillah © State House of The Gambia
By Edward Francis Dalliah
As The Gambia embarks on its Recovery-Focused National Development Plan (RF-NDP) 2023-2027, the vision of economic stability, inclusive growth, and poverty reduction remains ambitious. However, high debt levels and sluggish economic growth pose significant challenges to this agenda. The 2023 Annual Progress Report highlights the nation’s fragile economy, where persistent structural weaknesses overshadow the government’s efforts toward sustainable development.
Economic Performance and Growth Challenges
Despite high expectations, The Gambia’s GDP growth rate for 2023 stood at 5.3%, falling short of the RF-NDP’s 7% target. This underperformance is largely attributed to delays in government-funded infrastructure projects and lower-than-expected grant disbursements.
Given the country’s heavy reliance on agriculture, taxation, and tourism, it remains highly vulnerable to external shocks, such as climate change and fluctuations in international markets. While rice production has seen some improvements, it continues to fall short of meeting domestic demand.
On a more positive note, the tourism sector has recorded significant progress, with the 2024/25 season expected to attract over 232,000 tourists, according to the Gambia Tourism Board (GTB). In contrast, the fisheries sector continues to struggle due to inadequate infrastructure, particularly the lack of a proper jetty, which hampers its growth potential, according to the progress report.
Rising Inflation and Cost of Living
A major concern in 2023 was rising inflation, which peaked at a decade-high of 18.5% in September before slightly declining to 17.3% by year-end. This far exceeds the RF-NDP’s target of keeping inflation below 10%. According to the progress report, inflation was driven primarily by exchange rate depreciation and rising international commodity prices, particularly food and energy.
For ordinary Gambians, this translates into a higher cost of living, with food and basic necessities becoming significantly more expensive, disproportionately affecting low-income households. However, in November 2024, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank reported that headline inflation had fallen to 10.0% in October 2024. While this signals improvement, the cost of living remains a pressing issue.
Debt Crisis and Budget Allocation
The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 74.5% by the end of 2023, reflecting the government’s heavy spending on infrastructure projects, including preparations for the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Summit. While external grants and loans help fund these projects, rising debt-servicing costs limit investment in critical sectors such as healthcare, education, and job creation.
According to the 2025 Budget Speech, debt servicing continues to dominate government expenditure, with D11 billion (23% of the budget) allocated to debt repayment. However, the government projects that public and publicly guaranteed debt will decline to 63.1% of GDP in 2025, maintaining a downward trajectory over the medium term.
Budget Deficit and Fiscal Performance
Despite some improvements, the budget deficit remains a challenge, standing at 3.1% of GDP in 2023—a notable improvement from 5.7% in 2022. The government attributes this progress to higher-than-expected revenue collection and donor disbursements, as outlined in the 2023 annual report. Looking ahead, the budget deficit for 2025 is projected to decline further to 1.4% of GDP, amounting to D2.7 billion for all funds.
The Road Ahead: Can the RF-NDP Succeed?
With two years remaining in the RF-NDP’s implementation, a critical question remains: Can the government overcome these economic hurdles, or will the RF-NDP become another ambitious plan left unfulfilled? The coming years will be crucial in determining whether The Gambia can achieve its development objectives or continue to grapple with the same economic vulnerabilities.
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